Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland
This article exploits data on the pattern of violence across regions and over time to estimate the impact of the peace process in Northern Ireland on house prices. After establishing a negative correlation between killings and house prices, we estimate the parameters of a Markov switching model with conflict and peace as latent states. We use the model to estimate the size of the peace dividend as captured in house price changes.
The Pre-print version of the article can be downloaded here. The published article can be downloaded here.
Replication data is available here. The Online Appendix of the article is available here.
- Keywords: peace dividend, conflict, conflict resolution, housing price, northern ireland, troubles, markov chain.