Papers and projects

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My academic research is in the area Machine Learning, Political Economy, Development Economics and Conflict Studies. Most of my work is applied work which uses quantitative data to analyze questions relevant for policy making. Below is a chronological list of my published and working papers.

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  • Policy Reports

2023 - Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model Policy Report

FCDO / with Alexandra Malaga, Christopher Rauh, Alessandro Ruggieri and Benjamin Seimon.
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2023 - Conflict, Social Unrest and Policy Uncertainty Measures are Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting

Working Paper / joint with Marina Diakonova, Luis Molina, Javier J. Perez and Cristopher Rauh
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2022 - Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model

Working Paper / joint with Christopher Rauh and Alessandro Ruggieri
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2022 - Using Past Violence and Current News to Predict Changes in Violence

International Interactions, 48:4, 579-596 / joint with Christopher Rauh
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2022 - Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"

Forthcoming in Journal of Economic History. / (joint with Sandra García-Uribe and Carlos Sanz)
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2022 - The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention

Journal of the European Economic Association, 20 (6) / joint with Christopher Rauh
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2021 - Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility

Book chapter in manual by Ralph Chami Raphael Espinoza Peter J. Montiel on Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States / joint with Tim Besley
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2021 - Monitoring War Destruction from Space Using Machine Learning

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (23) / joint with Andre Groeger, Jonathan Hersh, Andrea Matranga and Joan Serrat
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2021 - Ethnic Violence Across Space

Economic Journal / joint with Dominic Rohner and David Schönholzer
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2021 - How Big is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data

Working Paper / joint with Tim Besley and Thiemo Fetzer
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2020 - Conflict and Poverty

World Bank / joint with Chanon Techasunthornwat
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2020 - Executive Constraints and Institutional Robustness

Working Paper / joint with Tim Besley
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2020 - Forecasting and Nowcasting Political Risk Around the World

Banco de España / joint with Christopher Rauh
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2019 - ¿El desempleo daña la salud mental?

Observatori la Caixa / joint with Lidia Farre and Francesco Fasani. Special thanks to Michele Catanzaro.
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2019 - Quality of Institutions and Structural Transformation

UN/ECA / joint with Zoubir Benhamouche, Bruno Conte Leite and Thiemo Fetzer
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2018 - Can Power-sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland

Economic Policy, 33(95), pp. 447–484. / joint with Dominic Rohner
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2018 - Institutions, Volatility and Investment

Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(3), pp. 604-649. / joint with Timothy Besley
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2018 - Predation, Protection and Productivity: A Firm-Level Perspective

American Economic Journal: Macro, 10(2), pp. 184-221. / joint with Tim Besley
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2018 - Feeling Useless: the Effect of Unemployment on Mental Health in the Great Recession

IZA Journal of Labour Economics, 7(8). / joint with Lídia Farré and Francesco Fasani
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2018 - Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text

American Political Science Review, 112(2), pp. 358-375. / joint with Christopher Rauh
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2017 - How Much Is Prevention Worth?

UN/World Bank / ---
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2017 - Recovery from Conflict: Lessons of Success

World Bank / joint with Lavinia Piemontese and Augustin Tapsoba
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2016 - Growth and Violence: Argument for a Per Capita Measure of Civil War

Economica, 83(331), pp. 473-497 / ---
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2015 - Cultural Leaders and the Clash of Civilizations

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 59(3), pp. 367-400 / joint with Esther Hauk
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2015 - The Welfare Cost of Lawlessness: Evidence from Somali Piracy

Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(2), pp. 203–239 / joint with Tim Besley and Thiemo Fetzer
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2015 - Insulation or Patronage: Political Institutions and Bureaucratic Efficiency

B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy. 15(3), pp. 961-996. / ---
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2015 - Primaries: The Unifying Force

Public Choice, 163(2), pp. 289-305. / joint with Rafael Hortala-Vallve
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2012 - Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland

American Economic Review, 102 (2): 810-33. / joint with Tim Besley
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2012 - Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery: Comment

American Economic Review, 102, 7, pp. 3774-77. / ---
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2011 - Thanks for Nothing? Not-for-Profits, Labor Donations, and Motivated Agents

Journal of Public Economics, 95, pp. 94-105. / joint with Maitreesh Ghatak
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