Academic Research

PROJECTS DEVELOPED IN THIS SERVICE

2023 - Conflict, Social Unrest and Policy Uncertainty Measures are Useful for Macroeconomic Forecasting

Working Paper / joint with Marina Diakonova, Luis Molina, Javier J. Perez and Cristopher Rauh
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2022 - Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model

Working Paper / joint with Christopher Rauh and Alessandro Ruggieri
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2022 - Using Past Violence and Current News to Predict Changes in Violence

International Interactions, 48:4, 579-596 / joint with Christopher Rauh
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2022 - Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"

Forthcoming in Journal of Economic History. / (joint with Sandra García-Uribe and Carlos Sanz)
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2022 - The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention

Journal of the European Economic Association, 20 (6) / joint with Christopher Rauh
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2021 - Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility

Book chapter in manual by Ralph Chami Raphael Espinoza Peter J. Montiel on Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States / joint with Tim Besley
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2021 - Monitoring War Destruction from Space Using Machine Learning

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (23) / joint with Andre Groeger, Jonathan Hersh, Andrea Matranga and Joan Serrat
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2021 - Ethnic Violence Across Space

Economic Journal / joint with Dominic Rohner and David Schönholzer
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2021 - How Big is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data

Working Paper / joint with Tim Besley and Thiemo Fetzer
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2020 - Executive Constraints and Institutional Robustness

Working Paper / joint with Tim Besley
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2018 - Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text

American Political Science Review, 112(2), pp. 358-375. / joint with Christopher Rauh
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2018 - Institutions, Volatility and Investment

Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(3), pp. 604-649. / joint with Timothy Besley
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2018 - Predation, Protection and Productivity: A Firm-Level Perspective

American Economic Journal: Macro, 10(2), pp. 184-221. / joint with Tim Besley
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2018 - Feeling Useless: the Effect of Unemployment on Mental Health in the Great Recession

IZA Journal of Labour Economics, 7(8). / joint with Lídia Farré and Francesco Fasani
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2018 - Can Power-sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland

Economic Policy, 33(95), pp. 447–484. / joint with Dominic Rohner
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2015 - Cultural Leaders and the Clash of Civilizations

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 59(3), pp. 367-400 / joint with Esther Hauk
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2015 - The Welfare Cost of Lawlessness: Evidence from Somali Piracy

Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(2), pp. 203–239 / joint with Tim Besley and Thiemo Fetzer
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2015 - Insulation or Patronage: Political Institutions and Bureaucratic Efficiency

B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy. 15(3), pp. 961-996. / ---
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2015 - Primaries: The Unifying Force

Public Choice, 163(2), pp. 289-305. / joint with Rafael Hortala-Vallve
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2012 - Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland

American Economic Review, 102 (2): 810-33. / joint with Tim Besley
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2012 - Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery: Comment

American Economic Review, 102, 7, pp. 3774-77. / ---
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2011 - Thanks for Nothing? Not-for-Profits, Labor Donations, and Motivated Agents

Journal of Public Economics, 95, pp. 94-105. / joint with Maitreesh Ghatak
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