Despite unprecedented access to data, resources, and wealth, the world faces an escalating wave of humanitarian crises. Armed conflict, climate-induced disasters, and political instability are displacing millions and devastating communities. Nearly one in every five children are living in or fleeing conflict zones (OCHA, 2024). Often the impacts of conflict and climatic hazards – such as droughts and flood – exacerbate each other, leading to even greater suffering. As crises unfold and escalate, the need for timely and effective humanitarian action becomes paramount.
This Policy Insight provides an account of the significant technical, ethical, and organisational difficulties involved in such systems, and the current solutions in place. The policy insights paper can be accessed here. A VOXEU summary of the paper is here.
Margherita Philipp and I were interviewed by Tim Phillips in the context of the Paris CEPR Symposium in 2024. Tim is a seasoned interviewer which made this a great experience and hopefully informative about the findings and context of the study - the recording can be accessed here.
The CEPR policy insight was the result of a workshop we organized in Barcelona in 2024. The meeting was between representatives from the humanitarian sector, violence data providers and conflict forecasters. We all thought about how to improve anticipatory action through machine learning.