Papers and projects

  • Home
  • /
  • Papers and projects

My academic research is in the area Machine Learning, Political Economy, Development Economics and Conflict Studies. Most of my work is applied work which uses quantitative data to analyze questions relevant for policy. I am also involved in several projects directly targeting policy making. Below is a chronological list of policy projects and academic projects. Use the buttons below to filter.

  • All
  • Research
  • Policy Reports

2025 - Breaking the Echo Chamber: Social Media Networks and Political Conflict

CEPR Discussion Paper / joint with Luis Menendez, Daniel Montolio and Francesco Slataper
See more

2025 - Uncovering Economic Policy Uncertainty During Conflict

CEPR Discussion Paper / joint with Sophie Brochet and Christopher Rauh
See more

2025 - Rents, Rules or Revolution: A Survey of Institutional Pathways to Peace

Accepted at Economic Policy / joint with Laura Mayoral
See more

2025 - The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature

World Development / joint with Paola Vesco, Ghassan Baliki, Tilman Brück, Stefan Döring, Anneli Eriksson, Hanne Fjelde, Debarati Guha-Sapir, Jonathan Hall, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Maxine R. Leis, Christopher Rauh, Ida Rudolfsen, Ashok Swain, Alexa Timlick, Phaidon T.B. Vassiliou, Johan von Schreeb, Nina von Uexkull, Håvard Hegre
See more

2025 - The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty

Journal of Peace Research / joint with Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Alexandra Malaga, Christopher Rauh and many others.
See more

2025 - Road Investment and Violence in DRC: Perishable Peace Dividends

World Bank Policy Research Working Paper / joint with Mathilde Lebrand, Peer Schouten, and Jevgenijs Steinbuks
See more

2025 - The Case for Armed Conflict Prediction

Discussion Paper / with support of the EconAI team
See more

2024 - Harnessing AI: How to develop and integrate automated prediction systems for humanitarian anticipatory action

CEPR Policy Insights / joint with Margherita Phillip and the Humanitarian Forecast Working Group
See more

2024 - Introducing a global dataset on conflict forecasts and news topics

Data&Policy / joint with Christopher Rauh and Benjamin Seimon
See more

2024 - Building bridges to peace: a quantitative evaluation of power-sharing agreements

Economic Policy / joint with Christopher Rauh
See more

2024 - How Big is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data

Review of Economics and Statistics / joint with Tim Besley and Thiemo Fetzer
See more

2024 - The information content of conflict, social unrest and policy uncertainty measures for macroeconomic forecasting

Latin American Journal of Central Banking / joint with Marina Diakonova, Luis Molina, Javier J. Perez and Cristopher Rauh
See more

2024 - Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"

Journal of Economic History / joint with Sandra García-Uribe and Carlos Sanz
See more

2023 - Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model Policy Report

FCDO / with Alexandra Malaga, Christopher Rauh, Alessandro Ruggieri and Benjamin Seimon.
See more

2022 - Using Past Violence and Current News to Predict Changes in Violence

International Interactions, 48:4, 579-596 / joint with Christopher Rauh
See more

2022 - Dynamic Early Warning and Action Model

Working Paper / joint with Christopher Rauh and Alessandro Ruggieri
See more

2022 - The Hard Problem of Prediction for Conflict Prevention

Journal of the European Economic Association, 20 (6) / joint with Christopher Rauh
See more

2021 - Fiscal Capacity and State Fragility

Book chapter in manual by Ralph Chami Raphael Espinoza Peter J. Montiel on Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States / joint with Tim Besley
See more

2021 - Monitoring War Destruction from Space Using Machine Learning

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (23) / joint with Andre Groeger, Jonathan Hersh, Andrea Matranga and Joan Serrat
See more

2021 - Ethnic Violence Across Space

Economic Journal / joint with Dominic Rohner and David Schönholzer
See more

2020 - Conflict and Poverty

World Bank / joint with Chanon Techasunthornwat
See more

2020 - Executive Constraints and Institutional Robustness

Working Paper / joint with Tim Besley
See more

2020 - Forecasting and Nowcasting Political Risk Around the World

Banco de España / joint with Christopher Rauh
See more

2019 - Quality of Institutions and Structural Transformation

UN/ECA / joint with Zoubir Benhamouche, Bruno Conte Leite and Thiemo Fetzer
See more

2019 - ¿El desempleo daña la salud mental?

Observatori la Caixa / joint with Lidia Farre and Francesco Fasani. Special thanks to Michele Catanzaro.
See more

2018 - Reading Between the Lines: Prediction of Political Violence Using Newspaper Text

American Political Science Review, 112(2), pp. 358-375. / joint with Christopher Rauh
See more

2018 - Can Power-sharing Foster Peace? Evidence From Northern Ireland

Economic Policy, 33(95), pp. 447–484. / joint with Dominic Rohner
See more

2018 - Feeling Useless: the Effect of Unemployment on Mental Health in the Great Recession

IZA Journal of Labour Economics, 7(8). / joint with Lídia Farré and Francesco Fasani
See more

2018 - Predation, Protection and Productivity: A Firm-Level Perspective

American Economic Journal: Macro, 10(2), pp. 184-221. / joint with Tim Besley
See more

2018 - Institutions, Volatility and Investment

Journal of the European Economic Association, 16(3), pp. 604-649. / joint with Timothy Besley
See more

2017 - Recovery from Conflict: Lessons of Success

World Bank / joint with Lavinia Piemontese and Augustin Tapsoba
See more

2017 - How Much Is Prevention Worth?

UN/World Bank / ---
See more

2016 - Growth and Violence: Argument for a Per Capita Measure of Civil War

Economica, 83(331), pp. 473-497 / ---
See more

2015 - Cultural Leaders and the Clash of Civilizations

Journal of Conflict Resolution, 59(3), pp. 367-400 / joint with Esther Hauk
See more

2015 - The Welfare Cost of Lawlessness: Evidence from Somali Piracy

Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(2), pp. 203–239 / joint with Tim Besley and Thiemo Fetzer
See more

2015 - Insulation or Patronage: Political Institutions and Bureaucratic Efficiency

B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy. 15(3), pp. 961-996. / ---
See more

2015 - Primaries: The Unifying Force

Public Choice, 163(2), pp. 289-305. / joint with Rafael Hortala-Vallve
See more

2012 - Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery: Comment

American Economic Review, 102, 7, pp. 3774-77. / ---
See more

2012 - Estimating the Peace Dividend: The Impact of Violence on House Prices in Northern Ireland

American Economic Review, 102 (2): 810-33. / joint with Tim Besley
See more

2011 - Thanks for Nothing? Not-for-Profits, Labor Donations, and Motivated Agents

Journal of Public Economics, 95, pp. 94-105. / joint with Maitreesh Ghatak
See more